Watching the odds on current events

Posted on March 27, 2007
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Intrade logoFew experts familiar with the Conrad Black trial are daring enough to venture a guess on the outcome. After all, Black’s is a trial by jury, and a jury can be a fickle bunch. But those who insist on predictions would do well to watch the action on intrade.com, an online predictions market that allows traders to bet on anything from the outcome of American Idol to prominent legal trials like Black’s fraud trial, or even the next Canadian federal election.

Intrade has a freakish habit of almost always being right. In the last U.S. election, the site successfully predicted the outcome in every state. In a prelude to what might happen in Black’s case, Intrade successfully predicted the outcome of the Scooter Libby trial.

Intrade’s success relies on the number of people who use the market, buying or selling shares as events happen. “They tap into the wisdom of crowds in the way opinion polls don’t seem to,” says Intrade CEO John Delaney. One of the advantages of the market is that the value traders put on the outcome is constantly in flux, reacting to new information as it comes out, just like a stock market. And also like a stock market, you can sign up and make money trading on Itrade while they offer zero trading fees and interest paid on cash balances.

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